Bitcoin headed to $100,000.00?, page-113

Retail traders usually tend to find out about speculative stocks and cryptos very late in the cycle. When cryptos were widely published in media outlets during the latter half of 2017, it was time for existing holders to book profits. Basic chart analysis would also reveal a steep parabolic curve for Bitcoin. These steep parabolic rises are unsustainable, and inevitably end in a rapid retracement of 50% or more. This price slump has already occurred and is still falling without any sign of a trend reversal. Retail traders mostly buy either near the end of stage 2 uptrend, or stage 3 distribution. These latecomers provide profits and liquidity for knowledgeable investors who bought much earlier in the cycle. The best these latecomer buyers can do is have a stop loss light, realise they have made a mistake in timing, and sell as soon as possible. BTC briefly peaked at U.S. $17,900 [1]. Based on today's price of around $6795, this represents 62% fall. The reality of maths is that it would take a 263% rise to break even if someone bought at $17,900.

Crypto prices are highly correlated. All the large cap cryptos such as Ripple, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash, have suffered similar large declines to Bitcoin. DCC's price chart is also correlated to macro crypto market performance. No one posting on HC has any idea of how low or high DCC could end up at. Predictions and valuations mean nothing. I work on simply price and trend as seen on a chart. DCC is an extremely speculative stock, hence only a small position size is taken. When I last bought DCC, roughly 5% of total trading capital was allocated. Even assuming I payed top dollar all-time high 'pig in a bag' price for DCC at $0.44, my open loss would be 'only' 3.125% of total trading capital. The chart stop loss for DCC was $0.33. Acting on that chart stop loss would limit loss to only 1.25% of total trading capital. Position size and stop loss exit points are more important than anyone's opinions. Exit prices are more important than entries.

Trading DCC requires a different approach to trading a multi-bagger stock such as A2M. When trading highly speculative stocks such as DCC, you have to acknowledge there is on average at least 50% chance you will end up selling at a loss. This is the average win/loss rate for most traders. Placing the stock long-term in the proverbial drawer often leads to tears. At a minimum, the chart needs to be looked at briefly once every two trading days after the market has closed for the day. For a trader, 35 cents was the best realistic exit point for DCC. 33 cents was more realistic given that stocks tend to fall faster than rise during the downtrend stage.

DCC downtrend still intact over multiple time frames.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin