Let's stick with one thread about TO SP speculation, plus I'd like to add in some discussion about impact on AGO holders who expect multi-bagger out of the stock (as I do).
AGO on it's own at the moment is quite capable of going from 2 cents to 4 cents to 8 cents to 16 cents, though that's probably about it without any buy-backs. However, for someone who bought in at 2 cents, that's a 1, 2, 4 or 8 bagger, and not unrealistic in the next 6-18 months.
BUT, if AGO is taken over by MIN, the chances of a multi-bagger diminish dramatically.
Say the TO price is 4 cents (possible, though not probable - I don't really know). Everyone says hurrah, double the current SP! But that's were the value-add pretty much stops. To get anything other than a one-bagger out of AGO, if you bought in at 2 cents, MIN would have to double in SP. MIN is currently trading at $17.24. The highest it's ever been is $22.00. What's the chance of it doubling to $32 in the near future, or to $44? Pretty low I'd say. Even BHP is trading at only $28.50.
And lots of us bought in at higher than 2 cents, all the way up to the Feb 17 high of 5.3 cents. So if you bought in there, say goodby to ANY near-term profit, and certainly no multi-bagger.
We know AGO is capable of 5 cents on its own (hell, it was 4.3 in January), just on an increase in IO price, or with one of its other options coming on stream (lithium, manganese was it?), and then there's its port facilities, and all that unexplored tenements it holds.
My overall feeling is that a TO could be very bad news, though I'd love for someone to put a different argument to prove me wrong.
GW
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