profit per prophet

What a build up ! Gosh this is as good as the Oscars.

Well Dargie and all you dobbermans out there here are a few figures and calculations for you to chew over and chomp up.

For PPP the figures will essentially be for a half year but I have treated these calculations in a two quarter package.

September Quarter:
PPP's share of production was 240,000 barrels of oil
but in reality only 117,000 barrels actually was credited by Sept 30.
So I have used US$82 gross for that quarter (nett will follow later)
(1)240,000 @ US$ 82 = US$ 19,680,000 Possible
(2)117,000 @ US$ 82 = US$ 9,594,000 Reality

For the costs involved (production, transport, FPSO lease)I have taken as US$ 10.
So in Nett terms :
(1)240,000 @ US$ 72 = US$ 17,280,000 NETT Possible
(2)117,000 @ US$ 72 = US$ 8,424,000 NETT Possible

The essential point there being that there is an onflow of money from production in the September Quarter to come through in the December Quarter.
( That is US$ 10,086,000 Gross or US$ 8,856,000 NETT to add to next Quarter.)

December Quarter :
By the end of December PPP had added another 400,000 barrels to its share of production.
However I have assumed that in reality at least 2 shipments will have gone but not been paid for by end of Dec..
So PPP share 400,000 - 60,000 = 340,000 barrels
( 60,000 represents 10% of 2 shipments @ 300,000 barrels)

I have taken the price of oil this quarter to be US$ 95 Gross ( which may prove to be too high an average but will see)
PPP has put options of 187,000 barrels @ US$ 92 spread over 3 years. I have assumed that about half of those have gone this quarter = say 94,000 barrels out of the 340,000.

So ........94,000 barrels @ US$ 92 = $ 8,648,000 GROSS
Remaining 246,000 barrels @ US$ 95 = $23,370,000 GROSS
TOTAL = $32,018,000 GROSS
For NETT figures I have gone with coost figure as before

So we can deduct US$ 3,400,000 from the above total for our NETT TOTAL of $ 28,618,000

ALL TOGETHER NOW !
If we combine Sept and Dec Quarter figures together
GROSS = $ 19,680,000 + $ 32,018,000 = $ 51,698,000
or
NETT = $ 17,280,000 + $ 28,618,000 = $ 45,898,000

Potential tax on US$46m @ .30 = US$ 13,769,400

PPP has at least Tax losses of NZ$ 10,773,000 (say US$ 8 million) Assume PPP is able to use US$ 6,000,000 at this stage.

Therefore it could have to pay about US$ 8 million tax according to my calculations

On top of that there will be royalties to be charged on the production. For my calculations I have taken 5% of the Gross figure
So 5% of US$ 51,698,000 = US$ 2,584,900.
Royalties may be owing but are unlikely to have been paid by the end of the December Quarter

So we can assume a possible income into PPP of US$45,898,000 minus tax of about US$ 8,000,000 to give a nett income of US$ 37,898,000 less Royalties owing of US$ 2,584,900 to effectively end up at US$ 35,313,100 or approx AU$ 39,409,420 or approx NZ$ 43,788,244

As usual ( E and OE )

Which is not a bad little income for 5 months for a 10% share.

Now I am working on my NZOG figures - so if anyone (esp Dargie) can check these over and suggest where I could improve, or if there are things I have overlooked - then I can include those suggestions as I continue on the NZOG effort.

Hope the above proves helpful either as a bit of a guide or else to highlight the pitfalls of trying to sort out calculations.

How does it look ???