I think the market will be anticipating the merger will go ahead (support from major holders and BoD from both sides). So leading up to the merge TAW's SP will be linked with AMAL's SP. From an AMAL perspective there's a lot to like about this deal:
- new reputable MD (Mark Calderwood), this alone I think would be a re-rate (based on when MC became MD of TAW)
- 100% ownership of the Bald Hill Mine and tenements
- future FCF and size of merged group will trigger a move from Catalist to Mainboard on SGX
- merge group will attract really big investors on SGX, eg Temasek (Singapore Government wealth fund)
I think TAW will trade at premium to AMAL leading to merger:
- 1:1.1 share deal
- SpinCo
Bring on the reserve upgrade and re-rate!
AIMO, DYOR etc
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