Plan vs Reality, page-9

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kojak78

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09/04/18

22:07

Post #: 32332216
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Originally posted by Samboy69 ↑

https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Troy-Karouni-mine-set-to-shine-in-FY17

Nov 2016
gold price U$1150, AVRP U$1223 AISC U$816, Karouni producing 69k ozpa, debt U$90M share price 32c!
April 2018
gold price U$1328, AVRP 1276-1330 Karouni producing 87k ozpa pro rata, debt U$16M share price 9.6c?
WTF?!

We saw the last time Karouni produced 20k ozpQ that its AISC was low at U$816
Can they surely slash the AISC even lower down to U$816 now?
On the maths its definitely possible, only 20% lower than Q2 of U$1017 with grades up 30% and production up 35%, higher throughput, higher stockpiles.

I will be stunned if the AISC goes below U$890 for Q3 but then no one, not even me, picked the prior AISC drop to 1017 (my est was 1100) nor this Q3 production record 21700 (my est was 18500). No one picked these blowout results so I doubt anyone will pick the AISC or cashflow either.
Where are the jokers now calling me crazy?! I was right, in fact too conservative!

After such blowout results, who of any of you dares to call the AISC at above U$950 now if it may go below U$900 even?!

Expand

December quarter: 16100 @ AISC US$917 + $100 royalty ($1017)

March: 16100/21700 * 917 = AISC $680 + $100 royalty = AISC $780 overall

The simplistic way assuming no change in mining costs, tonnage or capex.

TRY Price at posting: 9.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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