Spiel time...
Trade creditors wheels will be squeaking pretty loud no doubt, I'm pretty sure my business would be wanting to get paid for previous work/trade done. They must be being kept on the promise by TRY management and surely it will be required to settle some of these relatively longish term debts if finances are available, business is business and cash flow is important so they say.
Agreed behind the scenes, possibly by incentive but more to the point, as suggested in one of the previous/latest reports, that an understanding/compromise has been reached between Troy and its trade creditors and my take on that is after the Investec is paid then the trade debt will be reduced significantly, if not by means beforehand by significant trickle reductions then maybe halved straight up for example by means of a lump sum.
Ramblings from within the Gold Mine...
Considering a renewed debt facility for maybe @40million bucks (resource models permitting), as suggested in the going concern validation/auditing section of the last report that this was an option available to Troy, which if responsibly feasible wouldn't be so bad for the long term(although it does kind of suck to think more of the same - please no more dilution)
20million toward trade debt(@ 15 million outstanding) which for mine is reasonable and 20million toward the next mining phase, coupled with steady income from ongoing processing/production.
Extended two and half year or 30 month/ten quarter mine life, as previous loan term was 30 months and a production target of @minimum 14,000 oz per quarter(guestimate/ideally unhedged).
This is long term perspective and surely this is the view of Troy management I mean the long term.
4million bucks repayable per quarter(realistically it will likely be hedged)
1,000 AISC, averaged over period between existing and new resource sites, and a $350 per oz profit margin for calculation purposes assuming the gold price continues to trend upward.
14,000*350 = @4.9mil per quarter, reasonably realistic target(also the 20mill capital to consider).
The debt facility is reduced, the concern is going(going concern) - forward. + exploration etc...
Anyway what's the alternative?
Alternatively the underground smarts is there and troy are well aware of it but in my view are still in
preparation outlaying for this adventure, accumulating expertise, environmental awareness/knowledge and acutely aware of the resulting effects of coming unstuck. Ken suggested the partly underground methodology moving forward with smarts so maybe with his toe in the water this will be the post smarts/high grade/new phase direction barring any significant or feasible other resource model consideration. Still additional funding will likely be required, plant and equipment/personnel etc.
Maybe Troy management are considering both given Peter's mention of imminent processing expansion or words to that effect recently. Likely Funding required.
As mentioned by those whom remain in such important controlling positions post reprieve or directorship/management vote, "the intention is to operate in the best interests of Troy stakeholders/shareholders"(or thereabouts) responsibly/competently with the long term view in mind. In doing so I personally would like to think this includes exceptional skillsets and genuine effort in renegotiate any loan facilities in order to support such claims.
In addition to this, conducting thorough and accurate/reasonable feasibility studies within the environment in which they are operating, prudently with a view toward growing the company, as per the Troy mission statement or objective outlook. The last acquisition or presentation of inaccuracy within the resource models and ongoing clarification and shoring up/reassessment of existing resource claims is obviously financially expensive and seemingly a real detriment to the integrity of Troy's ability to accurately forecast production let alone garner any genuine external support with more favorable funding or even dare I suggest a take over offer, and a reasonable one at that. This measure of accuracy is surely the beholder of dog balls, Big Bad Dog Balls at that, representing the entire value of the enterprise and its credentials in one prolonged eyeshot.
A mention was made some time ago about alternative mine locations, such as Australia, and I have a sneaking suspicion that there is roundabout exploration taking place in a roundabout way as a future potential option although this idea may be so far out there that its conception was never even a factor.
Last but not least...
Given reasonable and genuinely feasible resource availability over the next 5 of so years(yes long term) and the right direct-ion Troy might indeed with a little peace and some harmony, and the price of the one and only U-NO-Hu make like a hootie and the blowfish and rise above the mess...
Go the Gold price
TRY Price at posting:
9.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
