Agree, it is kind of weird what they are doing with the SK-II booster (seemingly for now only dumping/placing it in product packs now).
Again with the benefit of hindsight, our (shareholders) big problem is we thought each time (each Wave) that each product was going to go global, as we didn't know any different.
Looking back now and it's not out of the question that Wave I eye wand, Wave II Magnetic booster were purely designed for consumer acceptance/education (particularly Wave I) and to test interest in premium brand (Wave II) and whether the loyal SK-II diehards would consistently pay a premium for the powered booster. Most of you who have been around for a while will remember in P&G presentations that they have a big emphasis on "premiumization".
In other words Wave I and Wave II might have been designed all along to be test consumer launches for market education/feedback purely in preparation for nailing Wave III straight up without error.
Throw in other potential key market research objectives that they might have had and there's an obvious list that stands out:
- Acceptance of tech in North America (and obviously Asia)
- Can we claw back market share in the beauty facial mask sector by introducing a premium mask backed by science to differentiate between all the cheap mask copies? (Magnemask)
- Is there consistent demand for the SK-II booster in the most premium P&G beauty brand at the most premium price point?
- Powered vs non-powered booster more preferred?
- Or is there more consistent demand for the booster at the lower and more average/affordable Olay price point?
- If consumers preferred the powered SK-II booster over the non-powered Olay Magnemasks booster, were they willing to jump up to SK-II and pay the premium for it or was this too much of a stretch and instead we need to create a premium Olay product range to capture these premium upsales?
No matter what angle I look at it from, I tend to draw the following conclusions with reasonable level of confidence, based on P&G's behavior and strategic direction:
- Wave I was never intended to go big / global. It was a dabble in the space to gauge consumer acceptance.
- Wave II proceeded because there were promising signs from Wave I
- Wave II tested acceptance of their flagship SK-II brand appealing (testing) to their premium consumer base.
- Magnemasks as mentioned in previous post is neither Wave II or Wave III. This tells me the Magnemask concept did not exist when the original Wave 1 to Wave 4 product schedule was released/agreed.
- This also tells me the idea of Olay Magnemasks was dreamt up, planned & executed rather quickly as an addendum (likely < 12-18 months from concept to execution).
-The purpose of Magnemasks was to compare feedback between powered and non-powered boosters.
-Magnemasks was to test the premium facial masks beauty sector
-Magnemasks was to test acceptance in North America
-Magnemasks has the "crappier" non-powered booster, which makes it easier for consumers to get excited and onboard with the gold, powered CELLSCIENCE booster.
-Wave III is the CELLSCIENCE product range (multiple products supported by the gold, powered booster).
-Wave IV is the long awaited integrated product which should be fairly close since the timeline of 1H, 2018 was estimated 12 months ago.
Which leads me to the final section of my post, again drawing conclusions based on P&G's behavior, but this time instead of reasonable confidence on these items instead purely speculation:
-The SK-II Wave II booster may not have justified a permanent place on the shelf with the SK-II brand. This is consistent with the booster not being on the shelf and actively marketed. The question is whether it will remain as a seasonal/promotional product to boost holiday and bulk packaged sales or whether it will be ultimately phased out.
-If we continue down the path of considering Wave I and Wave II and Magnemasks being purely test programs for the main event (Wave III) and given the current treatment of Wave I (released) / Wave II (not actively promoted) and Magnemasks (probably not a part of the original equation at all), I hold grave concerns about the longevity of particularly the SK-II booster and to a lower degree the Olay Magnemasks products.
-Personally, I am leaning towards a slow phase out of the SK-II booster (based on P&G marketing behavior).
-If this were to be the case, then for whatever reason SK-II have determined that the booster didn't consistently add value to their product/sales outcomes or sway the premium buyer.
-Once the CELLSCIENCE product range is launched, it remains to be seen whether Olay Magnemasks will stick around as a mid-tier Olay product (need a lowered benchmark available so that everyone can feel wowed by the premium CELLSCIENCE products aka premiumization).
-I'm not sold yet on Magnemasks becoming a permanent fixture because of the seemingly cautious and low risk roll out currently across America. Granted they have shown more commitment with Magnemasks than any other product to date with respects to a launch, but it still doesn't feel/scream like a "global launch" yet.
-We have to consider the fact that Magnemasks was a late addition to the party and very likely originally intended as market research for CELLSCIENCE (powered vs nonpowered booster and/or use it as an anchor point to upsell consumers to the new premium cellscience product). Has it done enough to justify a mainstay in the Olay brand? Time will tell.
-If there are any signs of physical face masks being a part of the CELLSCIENCE product range, I would see this as further evidence of the eventual demise/phasing out of Magnemasks (won't be immediate), but Olay pushing/moving the physical face masks to the CELLSCIENCE product range would be a key indicator of the future imo.
-Inversely, if you consider Wave I, Wave II and Magnemasks were indeed test programs (speculation here of course), and designed to be research for the primary goal of Wave III (CELLSCIENCE), then we have to consider CELLSCIENCE being a much bigger launch than anything that we have seen to date. If this is true, then CELLSCIENCE and the booster specs are the direct outcome of over 4 years P&G consumer/market testing & research. I think it will become apparently quite quickly, but this might/should be the product where P&G don't mess around and actually take us global.
OBJ Price at posting:
3.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)