AVR (ASX) Ann: Investor presentation

Hi Eire2011

Thanks for this detail analysis which is very helpful. Having said that, if the Qrtly ADAPT sales only double from 1 to 2 million in more than 2 years, why should all doctors suddenly decide to choose ADAPT tissues over others? I have doubts on this considering doctors are very conservative and slow to change products. A more reasonable figure for June Qrt will be 3 million considering the extra 600k from IDN contracts and 10% natural growth.  anything more than that, I need confirmation or assurance from WP in email. Have you contacted him to ask this question? I am still waiting for his reply. Cheers.

Originally posted by Eire2011 ↑

Ok, so everyone is wondering how we are going to make this increase from Q1 to Q2.

Well there are a few ways to try and explain how this could happen.

Firstly I don’t think the GPO contract will be the main reason but it will certainly help. It is only forecast to do $482 revenue for this year. That was only a conservative estimate to get established in the contract. Maybe we hit the ground running and it’s a lot more. For example next Year its forecast to contribute a whopping $3.2 million revenue. So just maybe their initial order this month will be front loaded and more than expected.

We have had 9 new reps in training in the US that are expected to be fully up to speed this quarter. They cut their teeth last QRT in what is traditionally a quieter quarter due to to the New Year break etc. As they have industry experience they should make a big contribution in the 2nd Q.

We only just started introducing 3D in February in the US and it takes time to get around to all of the Doctors and sit in on surgeries etc before they reorder. We have gone from a $1200 flat patch to a $7000 AUD curved patch. The sale of this patch, while a little niche, will make a big difference over 3 full months after two months of “introductions”. We make these for $500 and sell then for about $5000 USD so any meaningful sales will make a decent difference.

We have also finished a month of introducing 3D into Canada and will have a full 3 months of selling 3D there.

Sales of 3D into MENA should start this quarter and again any reasonable sales will make a big difference. I remember WP stating one country in MENA did a large number of arch repairs and when available wanted to buy $250k of 3D off the bat. Could be this quarter.

We have had only 2 introductory months covering the massive country that is India. We now have a full three months to improve on original sales and get some repeat orders. Danny Zanardo was in India only last week working hard to get things going there. Lots of potential but will take time.

Ok, you are starting to get the picture.

Now GPO’s and IDN’s. The Premier IDN is scheduled to be awarded this QRT. An early award of this and any initial orders could also make a difference. Premier opens up access for us to hunt at 3000 hospitals previously not available to us. This IDN is forecast to contribute $3.7 million next year if awarded to Admedus. While only forecast for less than $400k this year again it could surprise on the upside.

There are 3 other large IDN’s up for grabs this year with no expected dates. Maybe one of those could be a surprise win  this QRT.

We have a new head of Europe in Eric Lambert who is actually a  Surgeon himself and he has set up a distributor model for increased sales in Europe. Europe is turning around off a low base but any meaningful increase in sales due to additional distributors will make a food contribution this quarter.

So add to all of this the exposure we are getting from:
*4C Medical presenting at conferences around the world
* the exposure from a very talented and well credentialed TAVR Advisory board talking about our tissue
* a new web site generating enquiry
* a CHD Advisory Board talking about our tissue.
* Increased clinical data
* 10 year calcification free milestone
* MD’s like Blizard doing 3D demos to the MENA region
* any Halo effect we are getting from 3D being in major reference hospitals

When you take all of these things into account and it is not really that hard to see how we could finally be realising our true potential this Quarter and hit over $4 million in Adapt sales.

I hope this helps some of you to see what is plausible and possible and why a $4 million figure this quarter is not as out of reach as some would suggest.

Exciting times ahead

DYOR and Not advice

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Last $17.97		Change -0.235(1.29%)		Mkt cap ! $345.3M

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Ann: Investor presentation, page-94

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