Running the Big Numbers, page-5

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Shadyjames

796 Posts.

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23/04/18

18:10

Post #: 32636524
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Originally posted by stonemasonn ↑

I attempted this exercise with a very clever friend of mine a few days ago shortly after WP released the investor presentation to try and assess how the market may value AHZ contingent on AHZ achieving its forecasts this year and so giving the market confidence they'll also achieve FY19 forecasts..... This forecast is contingent on Wayne Paterson achieving what he said he'll achieve. Time will tell!

Infusion division I will value at $32 million based on 2xFY18 revenues of $16 million. Infusion is delivering consistently strong growth and is increasing its gross profit margins as the switch from capital to consumable sales continues. That said, it is a division with no discernible moat, no real competitive advantage and many competitors. Also, it is limited to Australia and New Zealand and there is a limit to its potential growth.

Regen division I will value at $144 million based on 8xFY18 revenues of $18 million. Regen is also a division which has been growing moderately consistently for years now with no breakout growth. That said, if FY18 targets are achieved this would represent breakout growth of around 160% and prove to the market that this division does have a discernible competitive advantage, does have a moat, does have significantly increasing take up amongst surgeons and gives future forecasts credibility. It is also a very high margin/recurring revenue division. Using AHZ's peers in the medical device space for comparison I think a 8xrevenue valuation is fair for a division still in its infancy.

Immunotherapies I've given a $20 million valuation based on it's partnership and phase Ib trial with AstraZeneca. Could be worth nothing, could be worth a lot more!

TAVR I've given a value of $100 million by year's end based on future successful developments, 5 patents pending and successful animal trial results.

TMVR-4C partnership I've given a value of $10 million by year's end based on future clinical and commercial progress.

For New Products launched and set to be launched I've given a value of $40 million.

Market Cap of $346 million based on the sum of all parts mentioned above.

Would be interested to know where others agree/disagree with my potential figures above and why....

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You will have counted tmvr twice, since i am pretty sure sales to 4c medical are included IN the adapt revenue numbers. Other than that, I don't disagree with anything in particular; hitting our forecasts this year would put our mc up around there.

AHZ Price at posting: 35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $4.69		Change -0.235(4.78%)		Mkt cap ! $72.63M

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