CLA (ASX) My post presentation view on CLA

Originally posted by phuket guy ↑

Guys, I want to say thanks to all those who came to Phuket for the Presentation. The last visitors left yesterday. (phew!!) That actually turned into a 6 day drinkathon and nearly killed me, I now only have one day free now before Im down to singapore Sevens with some pisshead mates for another 3 days drinkathon. ....Go Scotland Go Kenya!) but rest assured ill be promoting CLA in everybar in town to which ever poor suckers chose to speak to me!!.(even in my silly sevens costume). I'll need a weeks rest after and to be a good Mr Mum to get my brownie points credits back from the wife!!

Anyway some of you have emailed me asking what stupendous insider inofrmation I may have gleaned from drinking with BB? I'm very sorry to say but the answer is none. BB does not work that way. however I do feel I have now got a better understanding of the potential way this deal should/could pan out. Let me prognosticate here:

*******NOTE: Big Caveat: the below is just my own ideas.just IMO. I promise.

1. IMO The SP is now relatively cheaper than it was at 10-14 cents with no Jorc. Now we have a great Jorc to de-risk and support the price here. Next step I believe quite soon is there should be a capital raise - BB mentioned 20 Mill AUD all to strategic International LT instos. He even mantioned hes talking about maybe getting it out at a premium to the SP. If he pulls that off itll be the first timw in my life ive ever seen a junior do a cap raise at a Premium!! lets see if he can produce another rabitt out the hat or not.

2. This would then make us bulletprooof against any unfavorable market environment. It will also allow BB the funds to advance this project (and hopefully share price) before entertainimg any more JV/off take/buy-out offers- and I believe there have already been some, plus several top global companies are phoning him for discussions and meetings (not the other way round!)

3. The cash will allow BB to do a "robust" Scoping Study which I personally believe will be a great one. and prove a higher NPV and lower Opex and Capex than expected. It should show that digging up this resource is viable right down to around 40,000 USD a ton on Co.(or less) It should also show the great gearing to any cobalt price increases or market even sitting here.

4. then we will have A big fat proven economically viable resource and enough cash in the bank to get to BFS. All this time the resource drilling will allow for further expansion of the resource. The SP by any logic (npv/peer comparison parity/ project earnings etc) should be at least 35-50 cents by then - possibly more.

5.Im taking a leap of faith now, (again all my thinking -but this is almost so logical of course it should happen) but I believe next step will then be a big Intl' JV partner or streaming or off take deal involving raising the capital for the plant which we agree should be less than 500 million. This is when the share heads over 1$ (depending on Co price).

6. Ill stick my neck out even further and say I can see that most logically a deal should/could ultimately be done with a large German Company probably a car manufacturer co or maybe mettalsgesellschft or the like (and maybe using German mining equipment like from Liebherr ). Moreover the Plant Capex will then very likely be funded by The German governemt who often give development credits to help developing nations and their own global trade especiially when German companies get it.. 500 mill USD is an easy loan under such circumstances and may even be interest free. The stock by then (early next year) should be around 1$.

7.or therewill be a competing buyout by someone else (Asian) for a lot more.

8. There should not be much more than 900 mill shares on issue by this time and little further dilution requited.

9. BB maybe steps down as MD and is just an non-exec -or advisor and more mining boys step up to the plate to run the co and take her into mining.

10 As the cobalt cliff (the coming cobalt shortage) begins to bite home in late 2019/2020 and the cobalt price will move higher probably up towards 180-200,000 a ton. Also as the mine takes shape and plant is built etc etc. production can be calculated. the CLA share price could start to really rally into the several dollars levels of course all dependent on and heavily geared to the Co price.

Thats enough for now. After Im back from Singapore Ill do a valuation based on this model and send it out. meanwhile im off to the gym to have a run/workout and good sweat to flush the body toilet before i refill it with beer again for 4 more days!! -Go Scotland Go Kenya....Australia? NZ? boo000!

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Hi pg
Excellent post yet again and much appreciated

I am sitting here In Phuket listening to the rain falling

If your liver recovers in the next 10 days or so please get in touch as Iam due you a beer or 2 for all your excellent posts, [email protected]

Cheers GH

Ps I knew you were a fellow jock and enjoy Singapore

PPS stay away from the 4 floors

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Last 1.1¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $26.70M

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1.0¢	1.1¢	1.0¢	$4.99K	453.6K

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