XJO 1.25% 7,777.7 s&p/asx 200

XJO Weekend Charting and Chat - 20th April 2018, page-19

  1. 2,601 Posts.
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    Hi @maxi48 ... You know I HATE  relying on EWT(Elliott Wave Theory/Counts) but much prefer(keeping it simple ... KISS ... as you'd say) and just try to 'identify' "Wave Personality"(i.e. Impulsive or Corrective).

    Now having said that, if your suggested count for the XJO from the 6150H was meant to be based on EWT then your count breaks many of Mr. R.N. Elliott's primary rules ... BUT, alas he always had his 'alternatives' ... or exceptions to the rules.[ I won't go there and explain; I'll let some Elliottician do that(Puggsie or Caldaro)].

    So, I'm happy to confess, why shouldn't MAXI48's count do as well ...???

    If I have understood you correctly it should look like this ...

    XJO_EWC_290418_1.png

    Whilst I'm 'happy?' with your wave 1(5786 ... your mAJOR oNE ---down ) as an Impulse wave, and even your wave 2(6026 after your abc) its your(assumed) wave 3 down followed by current rally wave 4 up that has me(and I guess EWT purists) bewilded. Now, it is possible that 5724.8L is a wave(1) of Wave 3 only, as I have shown in grey, and that this current rally is a wave(2) of Wave 3 up so I can't completely ignore your count(even with a few of those other rules broken)...

    OR,  I can go with my more comfortable Wave Personality viewpoint and say the move from the 6150H to the 5724.8L is some sort of Double Zig_Zag CORRECTIVE (for an ABC)move as shown (in pink) below. Note the wave equality is almost perfect. Now we seemed to be in an Impulse wave out of the 5724.8L. Sure, once again, we can find another EWC reason to say that today's high was very close to a good swing point in that since the 5724.8L we could have completed(or nearly completed) a (D) wave(similar to the (B) wave I have shown as they are very similar in structure and price) thus we could see an (E) wave down from near current levels ... BUT still all corrective for me.

    XJO_EWC_290418_2.png

    HOWEVER, as I said in my opening comment, I hate relying on EWT so will just simply remain vigilant with my small Bull position and let the market unfold direction b4 me ... For me that means I don't want to see the XJO back below the 5906 swing low.... especially, as I note today's high is  a critical chart point(red horixontal line on your count chart) as well.

    See how we go ...
 
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