'What has gone wrong since. Nothing really'
May I call a spade a spade.
Plenty has gone well but there are some things that haven't gone well:
DJ in the process of being handed back undrilled,
SNE-Nth coming in well under RISC supported estimate,
The difference between the FAR and CNE's SNE 2C estimates,
FAN-South results under expectations although not yet fully revealed,
The Gambian Farm Out many here including myself tipped to include two wells and/or plenty more $,
Planning to hand back one of the Aus leases and cannot even shoot a 3D over where they want to in the remaining lease due to environmental concerns let alone drill a hole,
Kenya still on hold,
GB more equity but largely on hold,
Financing of SNE unresolved and solution not yet fully clear ie what type of debt and at what cost?,
First oil still in a very open window of 2021-2023,
I am sure some were a little underwhelmed by the planned daily production rate from SNE which will leave plenty of oil in the ground for a long time which greatly impacts discounted cashflow valuations for the field,
Erin filing for bankruptcy protection which creates opportunities but also risks.
There have been no sales of assets by other companies to help support a high valuation
for SNE (Oilsearch recently acquired a similar size field at $3.10 with operatorship and plenty of exploration upside and in US so no real sovereign risk),
CNOOC AMI yet to deliver although it may still deliver something,
PE supposedly finished 12 months from filing yet it has taken some 10 months from filing to get to the third arbiter,
The PE result, timeframe, and actual COS simply unknown despite what many say.
The above points are probably why the shareprice hasnt 'looked after itself', plenty has gone right but you need to look at both sides of the ledger.
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