macquarie two dollar price target is a problem, page-7

V,

I couldn't agree more. Couple that with the fact that they make a large proportion of their $ from trading activity (which makes it in their interest to say one thing and take the opposite position) and the whole advisor/broker industry appears comical.

Reports are nice for historical numbers, I suppose, but little else. A while ago I read some academic articles on the performance of brokers/advisors' picks. Lo and behold they were sub market. Yet for some reason some of us give them real credence.

AFG isn't broke yet. AFG has cash. Aside from some property, AFG has brilliant assets in safe, booming markets - energy, shipping and aviation. AFG has good relationships with its bankers. AFG doesn't have thaaat much debt. AFG has little direct subprime exposure. AFG will be able to exploit the Fed cut rate. AFG uses limited recourse borrowing, which makes it almost impossible for any one creditor to pull down the company. AFG is trading at a crazy low p/e and pays high dividends. AFG has affirmed guidance over and over, and recently has said for the market to wait till they report then decide (which implies it'll be happy). AFG bought Rubicon for a 'fair' price. AFG may take time to build up the securitisation business again, sure, but name me a business that doesn't face challenges. For me, together any risks are easily outweighed by the potential upside. $10 by September, not impossible.