amadeus on the turn

guys re yr posts today

Management have done the whole tour thing a couple of times - even last qr. with Pete L in tow etc.

But you are right they definitely need more broker coverage than Shaw’s.
Also need the short seller to lose interest or be compelled to cover (Schwing may be the catalyst here)

ARW - will now be a long term project again as it was before being floated off - though don’t discount the value in the assets/knowledge etc)

Other issue is the need for the P&L to better reflect the real cash spun off and for the in ground value of the assets to be better accounted for/more transparent.
I.e. for the market to see just how cheap on a EV/bbl in ground basis AMU is.

Free cash flow is one thing but the market has had trouble valuing this thing when the attributable profit is as low as 07 ie 3.1M

So just quickly:

Expenditure (improving):

Sept 07: 7.628M (ops 3.61)
Dec 07: 6.48M (ops 1.7) – so significantly better.

Profit

FY07 PBT was only 4.3M after 10.5M in Amort and 9.2M in Interest costs

Clearly then D&A needs to come down which will then be matched by the reduction in debt (Due to the 10M from the part sale of Raccoon)

D&A is in part so high because of the banks reluctance to include much of the P2 reserves in its assumptions hence I’d think the current review.

So with the debt reduction, increased drilling/staffing etc and the forthcoming P2 reserve statement we should see a much better performance on the post EBITDA figures.

Then if Hermes “has” doubled or tripled the Hoffer field then maybe we are finally going to get a run.

If not then... takeover time

My opinion only.