AFR Article

I was pondering what the significance of the 9th May was in this statement in the AFR article:

"Sources close to the deal say the next few days will be pivotal to the bid, with certain conditions set to make it more difficult, but not impossible, for Appian to accept a higher offer for its shares after May 9, should such an improved offer emerge. The sources suggested that a rival bid for Avanco was therefore most likely to emerge before May 9."

There are no particular interim trigger dates set out in the Bidders Statement, so I had a look at the only other document which might provide a clue, the Pre-Acceptance Agreement with Appian. Nothing in particular there either, but then the penny dropped, reading Clause 2.

This Clause says that OZL may request in writing for Appian to ACCEPT the Takeover Offer, at least 15 days after the opening date of the offer. Long gone. Once requested, Appian must accept for all their shares before the expiry of 3 business days. This effectively passes ownership of the shares (not just control) to OZL. (subject to escalation in pricing blah blah) Very difficult after this time for Appian to take them back - almost impossible.

My best guess is that OZL made some urgent moves on Friday to shore up what is very quickly becoming a disaster for them. BR drew back from the brink of a qualified acceptance arrangement, Greenstone have declared the offer too low, and Glencore are holding out, with no comment. And there is a ginger group of long term holders holding a V Tidy (apologies to Vern) number of shares, of a mind not to accept.

I surmise, OZL have written to Appian on Friday, requesting they ACCEPT within 3 days.

That's the 9th May. Bingo!

So, if I am right with this Friday activity, why is it so important? Well, if there's another offer in the wings (AVB are required to advise OZL immediately if there is the prospect of another approach) and Appian haven't yet ACCEPTED the OZL offer, they would only have ~4% of AVB. They NEED the Appian 18.45% so they at least have a BLOCKING STAKE of over 10%

So, the 9th of May appears to be a pivotal date, for OZL, (and maybe for Appian?)

Perhaps there is another offer in the pipeline. I don't know, only surmising, but watch trading activity from Mondays open, and keep your eyes peeled for an announcement.

I may be way off track, but there is something up, and OZL don't like it.