FBR Chart, page-3128

My Speculating logic:

Seems the market anticipation of the upcoming HX assembly completion by Q2 sits above 20c.

1:
My thinking of the recent leg up is, that this may leads up to 24-25c on assembly completion ANN (this kinda of announcement will have a good SP sensitivity, say = 1.0), if the market now stabilises around 20c for a high probability HX completion to accur within the next 6-8 weeks, say at 80% good chance, then that will have left 20% risk premium for the downside, with gives 20c x ( 1 + 20% x 1.0) = 24c.

2:
The CAT taking up options structurally makes sense if SP stays above 20c, but realistically the chance this is to occur at 30 June is probably x% ( I'd say 20%, but put in your own number here), SP sensitivity level = 0.2 (my number here again because I think this is less significant than news about HX progress itself), but shall this to occur shortly after ANN of HX completion, the double whammy effect will send this to 24c x ( 1 + 80% x 0.2 )  =  27c


Same way I'd have a good idea if things didn't happen as expected, where I'd think the price will fall to.

I'm sure everyone has a way of 'determining' the 'right price' for specs, what's yours?