Can we say the intrinsic value of AGM is worth $1, backed up by its mine, potential discovery and ZFX share offer. Its worth another 20 to 40 cents due to the emotional attachment of its management, jinchuan and loyal shareholders. What will happen if the offer fails? Drops the 30 cent premium as there are no other offers. Will the emotional attachment still hold up the share price? Probably not as there aren't too many on this HC who have the cash to buy 5% stakes. Err drops at least another 10-20 cents.
What will be the final fair value of the company? 50-60 cents. Will the recent sharemarket fluctuation effect the share price? Probally so. Maybe 5-10 cents. Whats the value now? 45-55 cents. Hmm is it worth risking 45cents per share for an aditional share offer increase of 20-30 cents? The odds don't look that good.
Thats the logic I based my decision on. The offer allows small holders to crystalise their profits, maybe even buy back into the blue sky hopes if the offer fails.
AGM Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
