are we going green, page-234

Bonza

Not sure I can explain in full.

It is "normal" for the SPI to close the day at reasonable premium day after day in a good bull phase and at a discount in a bear.

In a major bull or bear market the premium or discount usually gets bigger after each minor correction, signalling extremes are building in sentiment.

You can have the situation like from Oct till now where there are very few discount days signalling to me that there is still a "positive" outcome expected. That is not good.

When you get a big discount outlier as per Aug 17, Dec 18, Jan 23/4, Jan 30/31 and even bigger on Feb 1, then they are capitulation signals.

Every one of those days was followed by an up day.

The fact that Friday was a good upday in XJO as well made it even more extreme.

I have a history going back to 1983 and it has always been thus.

Understand that should we enter a long bear it will become normal to have discounts day after day, and you need to know what is normal, and watch for extreme days in either direction for a signal.