dividend at risk

MCC 080204 Dividend policy
“The Macarthur Coal dividend policy is to pay approximately 50% of net profit after tax as a dividend”

From the company at the end of November:
“Macarthur Coal has forecast a net profit of $12 million to $15 million for the first six months of 2007/08, down from $42.2 million in the same period last year.
But sales volumes and profits are being heavily impacted by ongoing constraints in the Goonyella coal chain and high levels of demurrage.

"It is evident that there will be little or no improvement in the short term," the company said.
Ms Hollow said there was also significant uncertainty about the level of sales for the second half of the financial year, again due to restricted port access and coal chain supply issues.”

These issues since confirmed with flood disruptions.

2006 Profit 150M dividend 41cps
2007 Profit 66M dividend 18cps
2008 1st HY profit forecast 12-15M 2nd “expect half more of the same” at best
Dividend less than 10cps???

Share price $10.00
Dividend yield 2008 might be 1%.