I also was dreading the SC special 4pm WST. That would, I am convinced, been a bad read before Kip's Friday night red and certainly thrown the weekend golf session as Kip furiously typed demands for a refund on his horoscope. I can't see them breaking the golden rule and saving bad news for the beginning of the week where sh can wreak havoc on the co every day until Friday. Research is clear that we are all morons and if told on Friday, we will have spun a good side-story or been sufficiently distracted by Melania's new outfit or the Royal wedding to remember much come opening of the ASX.
The closing hours of negotiation are very intense, fraught and unpredictable. It is a science and an art, but imho it could be a good sign the announcement has drawn out after the f2f meetings is over because I'm assuming that means the parties' legal reps are going back and forward still and that the parties are still engaged, hopefully finalising the finer points of the terms for the agreement/release; alternatively, they may be trying to wash away a bitter taste before they sign off on something a little unpalatable. Regret is a cold companion if you look over your shoulder to see missed opportunities.....
The delay doesn't guarantee a settlement and any party can just pull up stumps, pack up their bat and ball and go home with middle finger fully extended if they can't be kept engaged. Unfortunately, we have seen these guys very attached to more emotional aspects of conflict than commercial (e.g., "our reputation" over sound commercial agreements - ref comments here defending the length and depth of matters and lack of settlement - if you don't believe me, go back and tote up their legal costs since they got so uppity about how right they are about everything and what they are entitled to reputationally or in apologies).
And I personally do not believe the delay means they are waiting for their legal reps to look over what they agreed in the meeting. That's b***icks imho, who negotiates at this level of risk in a foreign location without legal advice joined at the hip? I'd stake my shares that the legal reps have been involved at every step and even led with their advice at times. I'll wager they have seen every nuance and version of the release from the very first draft. Ok, you got me, that was a very low risk bet for me given the current sp , but hey... we've all quite obviously turned into nag-sheet junkies with this share so wth
Because I am knee deep in this and because I see an imminent end for Sud for not settling (because they are completely squeezed with cash flow), I am going to assume they have finally learned to check their egos/emotions at the conference room door and learned to make these decisions based on full and sound commercial data using all costs and future risk. But, we know we have seen their financials produced in a way to emphasise a story they prefer (as all financials can), so I hope the person arguing the commercial sense has grown a strong and hairy set to hold firm on the full and realistic financial risk assessment. Ref for example, CBD telling us how WC was a "friggin liability" but we all have been reading years of financials and announcements that tell us how good WC was doing, what a glowing future it had, blurring the boundaries between Sud and WC and watching it absorb (I assume this as there wasn't enough income from elsewhere?) at least some amount of Sud costs.
I would guess that the recent options gift for mgt may be connected with the removal of a salary/benefits lifeline and that mgt may be sucking up less or waiting until Sud clear a few hurdles? Just a guess....
So.... who knows. And not surprised the purple unicorns have stopped flying ... for now
(20min delay)