It's really quite intriguing - where are the 15% to 18% that have been bought on-market sitting?
If they have gone to institutions who are playing the arbitrage, spread across a number of holdings of less than 5%, then why haven't they been placed into the IAF by now? Do they think/hope another offer will come along? If so, it's highly likely that OZL would match it anyway, so there is no real 'danger' in shoving them into the IAF, as they benefit from a higher price anyway, or they can pull them out (if they are quick).
Could it mean these holdings are NOT being held for rolling into the Bid? If not, then who are they aligned to? Well, you could speculate that they might be aligned to G and G, who, together with these other holdings, might just want to stay with AVB, for an uplift at a later stage. If this is the position, they have enough to keep OZL well below 75%
Should retail do the same? well, imo yes, if this is the current scenario, as there is likely to be a core of around 10% to 15% who will just sit through the closing date, it might be even more. That leaves OZL gasping for breath.
The third alternative is a completely new bidder who is about to declare themselves.....hmmmm I rate this less likely now, but won't write it completely off.
The outcome will gravitate to the last few days, even the last day, and IMO, a lot will depend on where that on-market holding intends to go, and whether G and G have something more up their sleeve. I think they will need to come out with a definitive comment either way, to put some certainty into the DONT ACCEPT block, otherwise the thought of being stranded will play on holders minds.
I will be watching the IAF numbers, and looking out for any G and G statements of intent (unlikely but could stop an avalanche), so at the moment I'm still not going to accept, but won't be a martyr if it looks like being a raging success towards 75+%
Intriguing indeed
These might be just the thoughts of someone with too much time on their hands, but it may help others to see the forks in the road just ahead
30c, where the f*&k are the drilling results
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