You're right, the deal will likely be $xx million upfront, with backend payments if Ph3 succeeds + royalties.
People speculating around SP are just passing time before the deal is announced. They're guessing as to what the SP might reach post-deal.
In my view, we'll sit around a $3 - $5 mark until Ph3 results come out. If Ph3 goes well then sky is the limit, if Ph3 fails then under $1 for sure.
I'm actually not convinced Treagus and co will stick around that long. I think after their options vest they may get this negotiation over the line then bail with their millions. Hope i'm wrong.
Cannot understand $4 a share....., page-3
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