CATL’s IPO and reference to Manono, page-253

Your post got a lot of ticks and a lot of great analysis ticks too. But I don't think it is actually completely right.

You wrote : "The first announcement to mention Dathomir having secured the road funding was dated 20/11/17..."

But that announcement doesn't actually state that Dathomir secured the road funding. It's implied arguably (by the proximity of two paragraphs) - but it is not actually explicitly stated.



You started you post with - "Are people honestly still suggesting that there is some cloud over AVZ's legal right to mine Manono?"

Perhaps some were. And probably will again. People who do research don't all do it together or start at the same time. I'm not supporting or endorsing anything Mactrix wrote (other than one of his posts that I ticked related to weather), or what EquityEchidna wrote, but I do myself think there is still at least some small amount of uncertainty or risk over AVZ legal right to mine Manono down the track. To be clear AVZ is not mining yet. They don't have a mining license yet. And I would expect that if they do what they should they would get the exploitation license as a matter of course (except for a regime change caveat risk). In Australia a change of government would not so greatly change the chances of getting a mining license in my opinion as the same would in the DRC.

This is because at my current state of research (which would include knowledge holes) it seems possible that a regime change (new President in the DRC, new Ministers, so potentially new or replacement heads of state-owned enterprises like Cominiere and Gecamines) could see a subsequent change in the head of Cominiere and in the heads of a number of other DRC institutions which may have more than the usual amount of discretion (compared to say Western Countries like Australia) in the granting, upgrading (from research to exploitation) or the reissuing of mining permits. Regime changes in the DRC as a result of elections are likely to be far more substantial in their impact on who gets to exercise the discretion inherent in state institutions (which Minister's get to exercise Ministerial prerogatives etc) and offices than they are say in Australia which likely has deeper traditions of separating political power from being able to turn that power into a personal business advantage.

That risk would be less in my probabilistic model if President Kabila wasn't going to cease being President. And by extension if Zoe Kabila wasn't going to cease being brother of the President.

And that uncertainty is to do specifically with my current understanding of how business is done in the DRC. As I understand the Kabila family (including Zoe as brother to Joseph the President) has a lot of influence in the DRC and would have had for as long as Klaus has been involved in the DRC.

Sorry if this is a bit ranty/nit picky.