fundamentals and the future, page-8

Fundamentals..

CAPEX $3.2B

Margin US$20 NPAT per tonne.

Production: 35M tpa

NPAT: AUS$800M pa

Currently 1.9B shares on issue.

On $800M NPAT = 42 cents EPS

HOWEVER, Needs to raise US$1.6B.

On 50% debt financing, if raised at AUS$1 a share = 21 cents EPS or $2 share price target.

On 50% debt financing, if raised at AUS 75 cents a share = 18 cents EPS or $1.80 share price target.

On 66% debt financing, if raised at AUS 75 cents a share = 23 cents EPS or $2.30 share price target.

On 66% debt financing, if raised at AUS 50 cents a share = 19 cents EPS or $1.90 share price target.

On BASE CASE, 50% debt financing, if raised at AUS 50 cents a share = 15 cents EPS or $1.50 share price target.

Possible 2012 start up for share price target of $1.50 to $2.30.

Currently trading at 30 cents, which is a 4 to 7 bagger over 4 years.

Just brainstorming.

This is not investment advice.