AGY (ASX) General Comments &amp; Banter

Originally posted by Launched ↑

AGY - Possible scenarios for the week ahead Everyone has been getting hot and bothered over the coming announcement that has been scheduled by the company (after reassessing how long this would take after failing to meet the initial date set) to hit by the end of May (Thursday). Picking a trading halt or positive announcement at times can be like hoping for a great hand on the blackjack table. As most people on this forum are essentially gamblers at heart I would assume that you are all aware of counting cards to shift the odds in your favour... The current position AGY have left them self is equivalent of getting through most of the deck without seeing a single ace yet. You have a picture card and the dealer has a two... (This means the odds of something great happening very soon are high). Does it means we’ll get one this week - hell no! Does it mean the odds are in our favour - hell yes!!! Timelines and deadlines are essential for both the company to work towards and SH to assess the company’s viability to invest in. The only problem is as a junior resource company trying untested (on large scale) processes for the first time there’s a high probability that you may not hit your initial deadlines as you have not had a chance to factor in all the ingredients. Does this mean the company and its processes are failures - hell no! The complexity of what needs to be achieved should not be forgotten. Luckily for AGY they have one of the world leaders in lithium production/science in Pablo.. The initial date for BG was set and missed. The company then had the chance to reassess their timelines with a much better idea on what was needed to achieve their milestones. They have done this and set and end date as Thursday of this week. Considering the people making the decisions have the most to lose (or gain) from this deadline you would expect they deliver on time. This is not chump change we are talking about. The heads of company have many, many, many millions on the line - this won’t just change their lives but their whole family’s lives for generations! Alex is flying over to Argentina Tuesday and should be there Wednesday. This is not a sightseeing tour, this is to deliver on the announcement made to the public not so long ago. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what he’s going over for.. I would assume this means the announcement has a very low probability of dropping today. The possibilities become more relevant when looking at Tuesday or Wednesday. I’m guessing there’s only so much he can do over there with him concentrating on OT agreements and engaging potential investors so the probability of the announcement dropping Tuesday/Wednesday and coming out of trading halt by the end of the week is very real... The highest probability would be on a trading halt Thursday (in line with ‘end of May’ deadline), giving the boys the whole weekend to iron out any kinks and also to maximize any current production of BG and/or sew up any agreements that have been sitting on the table till the processes were proven. Not to mention finalizing the JORC... If those 3 announcements drop together I would not want to be on the sidelines waiting for confirmation as the SP will have an almighty jump and who knows where it will go but you can be assured if they are all positive it won’t be small and we will be talking multiples... As with any gambling there are risks. The company has failed to deliver on the last announcement so there is a chance they won’t again. Given that they were able to set the new date with new knowledge of what was required I would say this is least likely but still probable. So as an investor you need to weigh up the risks/rewards/probabilities and see if it fits with your own profile. I personally see the current risks as minimal. The current potential rewards as absolutely huge. And the probability for the rewards to come this week as quite high. I’m a true believer in this company and can not wait to see what the next week brings... All my IMO and don’t forget to DYOR

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I got to a counting card analogy, then realised the lack of paragraphs pissed me off so I stopped reading.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	196801	3.9¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

196801

3.9¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.0¢	464651	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

4.0¢

464651

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	231797	0.039
19	1760786	0.038
12	2721063	0.037
27	2272031	0.036
14	1957879	0.035

No.

Vol.

Price($)

231797

0.039

1760786

0.038

2721063

0.037

2272031

0.036

1957879

0.035

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.040	464651	2
0.041	274348	5
0.042	428693	6
0.043	356159	4
0.044	889891	10

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.040

464651

0.041

274348

0.042

428693

0.043

356159

0.044

889891

(20min delay)
Last 4.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $58.23M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
3.9¢	4.0¢	3.9¢	$10.94K	280.0K

General Comments & Banter, page-2864

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