Ann: Corporate Presentation, page-61

So here is Citi:
Monday snapshot: Major top in Oil
– The end of last week saw a bearish weekly reversal on WTI.
– This solidifies the indications on our favourite Oil Chart overlay signaling a major top – the end of the rally seen since the lows in early 2016.
– We are likely now to go into a $50 - $70 range for the foreseeable future on WTI. Given where we are now, the risk in the near term is for the Oil price to fall, probably to the $55 area over the next 3 to 4 months and possibly to $50 by year end.

• WTI posted bearish weekly reversals at the trend high last week. We also see negative divergence reflecting weakness in the rally.
• It should be noted that a weekly reversal has not been seen until now in the whole move up from $26.05 in early 2016.
• When we were looking at the possibility of a bearish weekly towards the end of last week, we thought that the $66 area could be seen over the weeks ahead. That however has already been tested i.e. the bearish weekly reversal was more aggressive than initially anticipated.
• Supports are now seen at $61.81 followed by $58.07/20 on WTI. The charts below suggest we are probably going to see lower prices still over time.
• • Here is a reminder of the path Oil (WTI) has taken since 2016 (blue) compared to that seen between the low in late 2008 and 2011 (black). The scale on the vertical axis is today’s WTI price.
  • The pattern and shape of the bull markets were very similar even if the aggregate magnitudes of the moves were different.
  • Then, as now, we saw a bearish weekly reversal at the trend high (that high above $114 in May 2011 did not trade again).
  • This overlay and recent price action categorically points towards a move down over the coming weeks and months.
  • While the aggregate moves up were not similar in magnitude, similarities can be seen with the final 12 months of both rallies, which could shed some light on where we go next…
  • • If the follow through is to be the same this time then we could test the previous breakout area around $55 in the next 3 to 4 months and possibly $50 by year end.