For AVB holders 16.5 - 17c after all this time the bid has gone on is sad imo, and also from my experience and imo, if the market thought another bid was coming it would pay a premium to OZL's bid price just like some actual low ball bids in the past has shown........However, to date, this is not the case here, just a lot of HC posters carrying on like pork chops, but everyone needs to vent at times and this behaviour is totally understandable as everyone wants the best price they can get.
Your next paragraph is more complicated to answer, well for me at least....
Whats everyone doing here? (you Ask)..... Your a wise man to ask such question.
It's always best to think foryourself but i have also thought about this and to do so i have thought about what people have to gain by posting do not accept posts on these threads. Because of the variation of the possible outcomes going forward, at this point in time, here to do with the bid a few different reasons pop to mind which will also include possible answers to your last paragraph.
It really all depends on how much of AVB OZL get, and if they get over the 50.1% line, which i have no doubt about. So a couple of things for Mums and dads to consider are what happens if OZL get more than 50.1% but less than 90%.
Firstly if they don't achieve 50.1% then i guess you'll be back to normal with your quality BOD and financing is your problem.
Secondly if they get 90%+ and you still don't accept i would imagine your account that holds your AVB shares will get raided one night even if your keeping watch or not and your AVB shares will be replaced with the cash and share offer as stated in the offer doc as such and such a date yet to be determined.
Then we have between 50.1% and 90% to think about, which is a more complex outcome. If this happens OZL will be in control and will be calling the shots and the future direction of the current AVB assets, your new boss so to speak. If you don't accept and still hold your shares or if you sell a portion or accept with a portion of your shares the AVB shares you still have will still be AVB shares. As we all know AVB dosen't have the funds to develop or fast track the development of any of its assets at this stage and your current board have stated that if the OZL bid fails a CR (dilution) and possible other financing will be sought.
One could logically deduce from this that if OZL only gets 50.1%, or half of AVB to make the numbers easy and throws in $50 mil for operational costs on how it deems prudent to move forward with the AVB portfolio, you non-accepting AVB holders will also have to chip in $50mil somehow be it through issue of shares (dilution) and/or some other financing, debt or hybrid setup (Based on half/half) If OZL get 66.6% and AVB holders are left with 33.3% and OZL throw in $50 mil you guys will have to chip in $25mil and so forth. These numbers are just for example sake.
Brokers and the more intelligent home investors will understand all this, well i would presume most brokers as its their job to know however if the brokers were any good at this game would they really need a job at the Brokers? so you have to make your own mind up there i guess.
I've been around HC and the market for a while, you can check how long
@Fishinnick has been a member and before that tag i use to use
@Skitzy which you can also check out and to last this long in a market thats like a mine field one has to be a survivor.
Thus in my experience and judgement at this point in time and with no other bid appearing i would be and am thinking the AVB SP will fall if OZL only get a part share, i.e inbetween 50.1% and 90%.
@Kalenn who seems quite experienced and liked round these parts by many posters here seems to think and has always stated he thinks OZL will get more than the 50.!% that OZL is hoping for.
Therefore if i was an AVB holder and really think OZL won't get 100% but will get more than 50.1% surely its best to sell @ 17c on market because if i have 1 million AVB's and get 17c that equals $170k less $20 for Etrade or Commsec fees, if you use an old school ring him up wait all day type Broker im guessing their fees will be a bit more silly but everyone has to eat i guess.
Then when the bid ends and IF OZL only get part-ownership i would have my 170k in the trading account and be able to wait for the possible fall in AVB SP and the possible share issue/CR or whatever combination of. Because OZL has bid for AVb @ 17c one may imagine the AVB SP won't go back to 8c and to be nice lets say it falls to 12c. How many AVB's can i buy then with my 170k? the math = $170,000 divided by 12c which = 1,416,666.66 shares less fees. Thats an extra 416,666 shares.
So going back to the original question of whats everyone doing here and also having lots of experience on HC, I think it is quite possible the non-accept crowd here on HCcould well be selling into the market with intentions of buying more shares back after the offer and bid is finalised as long as OZL don't get 100%, if OZL get the 100% then the remaining shares they still hold will be going through the process and they will decide what to do then.
The reality of my view of the situation is that selling AVB's at 17c is a no-brainer as it's WIN selling at 17c as its money in the bank straight away, no paper work either and also positions yourself as a trader/investor to potentially end up with more AVB's than you use to own for the same coin, however and to be fair the only upside to holding all your AVB shares and not accepting is IF another Bid arrives. thats the risk imo and it's everyones own choice to work out and do what they think is best for themselves.
Best Wishes
