thats a long answer :) maybe I can point you to a couple of places where you can read my other like minded folks work
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/kondratyev/message/26072
this groups been running in one form or other for 15years
this is another that I have been posting of for 10 years
http://www.safehaven.com/forums_show.cfm?id=1&sr=51
if youve got the time read through the archives I think between us we are near 100% with our forecasting over the last 3 years
most of the posters on the safe haven site are folks with +20 years plus experience a motley collection of hedge and mutual fund managers, full professors, authors, professional commentators and investors
eg Bud Conrad works for Doug Casey , James Clume wrote America Sucidal Staecraft, Henry Lui runs a $10 B hedge fund, Joseph runs a major mutual, Nick (sharefin) has the biggest gold web site on the world called sharelynx and there are allot more
etc etc
we as a group have been waiting for this for some time
you will find we were discussing sub prime back in 2005
the current scenario is well mapped out ahead of time in the archives
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