where now

Andrewe and Cash

I still rate THR despite the ridiculous punt on the market.

I have not changed my view that if he had been left to his own devices, he and the team would have delivered a heap more Nickel and sometime in 2008 the SP would have hit $1.50.

Yes there is uncertainty in that and yes I would be punting on the old blue sky mine - so it is just an opinion.

Fact of the matter though is there are other people besides the chief beard who are players in this game with a pretty big say. Lion selection, Jinchuan, ZFX and whoever has bought the 100's of millions of shares churned in the market over the last few months are all big factors. However the factor that scares me the most is this Take Over Review Board. Pretty powerful people if you look at the Qantas case. I reckon ZFX has missed the boat and there is at least a 50:50 chance the ruling will cull the bid.

If I was ZFX I would not leave my 300 million bid at a dollar. I would pull it and let the rats try and desert the sinking ship.

I also think Michelmore has been and will continue to be very mindful throughout the whole issue that he only has 1 customer - Jinchuan. He will never want to start off the business on a bad footing.

If he crashed the SP and took down Jinchuan's value in AGM they would not be happy so I think that is the only reason why he might stand by his $1. Jinchuan might also be very happy to have a 10% stake in an AGM controlled by ZFX. They just get divied back some of what they spend and they get to take a bit of a patriachal look over the whole thing throughout it's life to make sure their supply and investment is being well looked after.

Very Intersting but I must admit to being comfortable to be on the outside looking in at the moment.


Chinkiat