We should look at this from a different angle...what does CAT want? They always want one thing, that is the DST patents.
Unless within the last year or so, CAT has made significant process in developing their own version of DST or from an alternative source, CAT's interest is always to acquire the core technology in DST , but which is however patented under FBR.
CAT has the options to either acquire DST patents through take over FBR, which will have a valuation issue, HX + DST + Pivac's team = $?
or
CAT goes ahead with options on 30 June and take up another 40m shares, bring total holding to 60m shares, barely 6% even before performance shares, not enough to make a difference in controlling the DST usage.
or
As best hoped, CAT sticks to OEM for HX and even potential project 2, 3, 4, FBR gets loyalty of 5-10% of each copy sold, FBR sticks R&D going forward.
By either scenario, the key lies in how much CAT wants DST, if yes, a take over is just a matter of time, I just don't see how FBR can grow before outshoot by some other big players by simply getting loyalty payments and growing business into the future.
It's much easier to take over the company with its patents in early stages.
What are the chances right now CAT people are being walked through around completed HX by Pivacs, showcasing basic DST accuracy etc, so as to discuss the next move to take by both parties?
FBR Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
