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08:05
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Originally posted by 26Angler
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BY way of introduction, I was in the industry for nearly 20 years as a Stockbroker and company research analyst. Now semi retired with a fair to middling idea of ASX market ups and downs - and typical participants behaviours being corporate, research analysts, brokers both insto & private & sophisticated investors plus investors like you and me. I have read the BAT posts for months now and feel compelled to contribute this once as have kept out of it till now but suspect some insights may help holders through this difficult period. BAT management are building a mine in Mozambique and if you look at the history of almost any explorer come miner you will note the hockey stick pattern of trading during such a period. Price up on blue sky potential initially with great interest generated (sexy), then a lengthy pull back for 12-18 mths whilst the mine is being built (boring period) and then the accumulation period (Relief rally, FOMO rally, just prior to and during production ramp up before price takes off on successful completion and one can then value the earnings to be generated and potential valuation multiple applied. (Institutional investment period too if Mkt Cap >$100M as large enough, de-risked and attractive to predators) So this is a typical pattern for explorers becoming miners And BAT had the added problem of funding via placement to a resource specialist fund with a history of doing a hard deal thus really diluting existing shareholders and bringing in new shareholders just to finance its stage 1 mine. This was unavoidable and untimely due to world debt and share markets (read DOW) and the difficulty of getting funding for a minnow with country risk. Not an easy ask but RCF were probably the only option. And yes, they got too many options with too long an expiry date as a kicker - but remember they just replaced already existing options that were never going to be in the money by July this year whilst the boring mine build was going on! So what do we have fundamentally - ; A company with excellent, honest & capable MGT which have earned Trust from past endeavours. Long tail Country & Product pricing risk A positive trending material (graphite) with EV's and batteries etc being the main growth vehicles (pun intended) & technological upside via spherical graphite, vanadium etc Resource grade and volume upside (Both Deposits) Incremental Valuation upside via staged production increases next 3-5 years. Stage one mining licence and close to funding close. Its easy to blame management when things aren't working out as you expect but they have no control over the share price at this point and nor should they. Both Morgans and Hartley's private clients are probably up to the gunnels with the stock with no appetite for more and if not there is the SPP on offer with a free option for every share bought! So here's the THING - following are what I think is weighing on the price at the moment and it has nothing to do with the management or the brokers! 1. The Options are arguably worth between 1 - 2 cents depending on what you put in the BS model with volatility being the main determinent of value. So the SPP price of 6c means you are effectively paying between 5 & 5.5 cents for those SPP 2-1 shares to opts so there is arbitrage selling going on at the moment. Depending on what price people put on the opts effects whether they sell shares and buy opts or both. The opts will probably trade higher initially due their leverage attractiveness but should revert closer to BS theoretical value in time. 2. Due to the 2 recent raisings there is too much stock around being traded via algorithms and traders regardless of inherent value or cheapness of BAT. 3. There are people exasperated with the price decline and not understanding that you need to be patient whilst they build the mine and go through the normal hockey stick process. 4. 30 June tax selling no doubt exacerbated by the above with people selling for a multitude of individual reasons. 5. Stocks that do large placements inevitably retrace to the Issue price and then usually overshoot down - this happens To any stock and I have seen it a million times - so just know this is normal market behaviour. 6. Due to all or due to some of the above, people lose heart, get pissed off with dilution & sell at precisely the wrong time - try not to be one! I note a few doom merchants on the site that revel in critiques for whatever reason. And some really good analysis too but isn't it funny how negative opinions effect your psych for longer...this is just protective human nature All I can say in summary (sorry to be so long winded on this my 1st and only post) is know your investment well, be very patient and disregard misinformation no matter how well intentioned. And Know this company is simply getting on with the real wealth creating business and all of the above things affecting the share price currently are to be expected due to historical precedent and will all fade into the rear view mirror by this time next year! And in the meantime - if it gets too cheap - people will support it by buying more. A $50M MKT Cap or less for this stock is ridiculously cheap on any peer comparison or fundamental analysis but it has happened to many stocks over time on all bourses so one gets used to it and must have conviction and patience - particularly when they have such a good MGT team as I think BAT has, and a smidgeon of luck with final production timing and material pricing helps too! I hope this helps people in a positive way, and yes my money is where my mouth is as I have a fair few + SPP. I hope all long suffering shareholders get rewarded for their patience next year and if it helps, emerge stronger from the above attempt to cover some of Mr Markets Idiosyncrasies! Till then, All the best & DYOR, Success usually comes to those who earn it through hardship and endeavour - And Knowledge breeds Conviction and together with Patience rewards those that deserve it and sometimes those that don't :-
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