Chart Update, page-188

I have been amazed that people are shorting A2M. When you have a look at the risk vs reward scenario, it is almost irrational. When companies do updates 2 months before year end, it is more likely than not that they are conservative, so that their shares are hit by only one downgrade. Not meeting lofty 80% sales increase expectation because you have to change packaging to continue to sell in China is a very good explanation. Now we have confirmation Synlait have produced result at the upper end of the expectation (which is a good indicator of A2M’s expectation), and A2M’s holding of Synlait had increased significantly in value. I think the downside of A2M would be around $9.20 and upside around $15. That is a lot of risk to take on for very little reward and you have to pay someone to take that risk. It is never smart to betting against a company growing at 80%.