Some light reading, page-5

At half year, the $90m EBITDA, the 3rd time it had been upgraded, was based on average of US$175 coking coal price and $0.70 NZ:USD.

The exchange rate has fluctuated a bit (between approximately 70 and 74) so far in the 2nd half (and I believe I did a calculation a while back that approximately 1c = $1m) however the coal price has, as this excellent light reading has highlighted, been $202 - that is over 15% higher. I note at half year presentation, it was also mentioned "Q4 assumes HCC price of USD180/tonne" (half year presentation where they expected $23m EBITDA) - so far we are tracking 10% or more above this forecast.

Additionally, I am not sure what they forecast for Q3 but it has probably held up better than expected, although with the currency being higher than potentially expected, Q3 overall was probably in line with what was posted in the half year presentation - about $26m. Q4 is probably going to be around the same.

We may not quite see $100m, but we will almost certainly see above $90m - the current EBIDTA forecast.