City, my understanding of the consideration at current prices/FX rates are as follows (pls anyone correct me if I’ve misunderstood this calc):
- 1 MUA share = .0753 LIF share
- 10.7% is the max protection to LIF price fall and/or adverse FX changes under the agreement
- max uplift applied = 0.0753*10.7% = 0.0834
- at current FX price JPY/AUD, 1 LIF share = $8.90AUD (per google FX ‘calculator’ - lazy)
- therefore 1 MUA share gets 0.0834 LIF = $0.74AUD
However, holding less than 20,000 MUA shares is worth more at AUD$0.80/share. This would be a genuine arbitrage opportunity (if buying less than 20k) but for the risk of further FX(or) LIF adverse price movements placing risk on the deal falling through.
Regardless, KPMG valued MUA at over $1/share as a mid point (valuation details available in LIF announcement - again too lazy to find precisely but was a broad range & believe $1 does not misrepresent the mid point val).
To be honest, I would not be surprised if the price went up if this deal fell through, as the only reason it would fall through would be because LIF paying too big of a discount to MUA’s fair value - (I speculate) the market would therefore expect either another deal (at a better price, closer to MUA’s intrinsic value) or, Alternatively, it would at least bring this stock to the attention of more analysts & the market could price the stock accurately (pre takeover prices were objectively absurd).
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