"BNB, MQG and Allco are based on the same structure."
This is not a correct statement, as it is AFG's complex structure (and over levarged position) which has got it into strife.
This is just another cycle, and the BNB's and MBL will go on to new highs once the market stablises and resumes its upwards trend.
MBL dropped 50% during the last US recession in 2001/2002, only to be at $70 3 years later. You would feel a fool if you had sold them at $19.
BNB dropped to $17 in August 07, only to be back at $29 in November which just shows it will always move in line with the overall market.
Looking forward to Thursdays profit result which I think will be 50% EPS growth.
FY08 is off to a good start with either BNB or its funds:
acquiring 80% of Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America
which will contribute 5% to our FY08 revenue;
acquiring 20%+ of Forth Ports, valued at $0.5B; and
disposing of €395M of European real estate, with most of the profit to be recognised in FY08.
Availability of debt remains a current market problem, but BNB and its
funds have been able to access debt markets. On 18/12/07, the group
issued $US3B of bonds as part of the Natural Gas Pipeline acquisition.
Corporate debt costs in the US have changed little in the past 6
months so this is not a factor in reducing BNB’s growth prospects.
Baa rated corporate yields in the US have actually fallen by 27 bps from
30/6/07 to 18/1/08. Over the same period, UK 5 year bond yields have
fallen 145 bps and Euro 3 year bond yields have fallen 100bps, offsetting
the credit spread increases.
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