something to think about for monday, page-42

Danlupi

There are a few sites on Armstrong.

There are a few that invoke his name and then use their own twisted theories and hope the invocation of his name adds weight.

Just a google search will turn up the remaining few.

Don't be put off by this legal problems that kept him in gaol for contempt of court for years, unprecedented in US law, or the fact that he finally pleaded guilty to some charges as the only way out.

In fact it doesn't matter whether he was guilty or not.

All geniuses like the rest of us have flaws and not every academic is a good busunessman.

Some have suggested conspiracy against him for failure to divulge all his knowledge, and there certainly are many strange aspects in his case.

Like all theories, nothing is perfect and I have looked at his cycles back to the late 1920's.

There are times when his cycles alone were less than perfect.

That is why I combine the other known major cycles such as the US presidential and 10 yr or decennial cycle. And there other cycles , some of which I am aware and others which I am probably not.

Armstrong and his work has gained some notoriety again with his Feb 2007 top coming in right on time. The overall market recovered to higher highs, although notably the BKX or US banking index did not.

This suggests that many more are aware of his model and there is likely to be a market reaction with the next turn.

Of course if the majority or a large number treat it as the holy grail, it must fail in some way as the majority can never be correct for long.

That is one reason it is possibly that the March date becomes a high instead of a low, or that some markets benefit and others don't or even that like last Feb, the reaction is brief and although overall will be correct, may be sideways or finish up at cycle end but with all sorts of twists and turns.

Still, I recommend his work as something that has great importance to understanding long term markets.