- rail capacity. riv will be competing with CVRD and other indian steel interests for export capacity. As i understand the railway is being rebuilt to only 20mT capacity. Perhaps this lack of infrastructure (+margin calls) explains the massive fall in RIV's price (when all other coal stocks are staying high e.g. MCC went up again today, WHC has been performing great)
20mT, CVRD has booked in 15mT. That leaves RIV, others with only 5mT, not enough export capacity to justify current market capitalisation.
-viability of barge transporation - proven in USA and other countries, but major uncertainty on whether able to be applied to Zambezi river
-Power station mine mouth coal. This is not what the market is looking for. domestic coal price won't be like international price. The interest in RIV is due to export potential of met. coal and large tonnage.
-Having a large 20billion tonne deposit doesn't mean anything unless you can get 5-10mT out to export market. If RIV can they will make 65% of whatever profits - enough to justify market cap.
-I am a supporter of RIV but i am losing a bit of faith. Only a feasibility study proving the barge can restore faith. Anyone close to the company have any clue whether barge can work(or rail expanded further?).
RIV Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
