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4.5¢ atlas iron limited

Ann: 4.2 cents per share takeover offer from Hancock, page-141

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asx_dude

1,327 Posts.

623

18/06/18

21:21

Post #: 33781296
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Originally posted by asx_dude ↑

All in opinion:
Gina now has 4.2 cash offer. A new SP baseline was set but the SP has flown higher why? Because MIN is taking position? The probability of a better offer is absolutely high in my eyes. High stakes here and a huge strategic asset to gain for the winner.
FMG is accessing options and I would expect them to counter Gina / MIN for most likely a Scrip offer.

I think it's obvious we AGO holders are holding to see its resources tapped into with rail access, it's diversification Lithium potential and the port access fully utilised. Theres all to gain with AGO and I would feel better to be invested in a scrip offer to see AGOs potential upside realised. We shareholders deserve to be part of that. Cash only is not enough folks......
MIN we assume are accessing options for a better Scrip counter offer. What will FMG offer AGO holders to be part of this great Aussie story? The way I see it with Gina is if she doesn't counter the next bid up as a scrip at a higher bid she could be out of the running.

Could FMG be the winner?
MIN counters with better offer. Let's say around 5c scrip.
FMG wins on counter at around 6c which wins.
Gina could leverage her 20% holdings into a JV of AGOs resources/port capacity at the benefit of costs and profits for all.
MIN could JV to help tap into it's lithium possibilities.

The added upside is FMGs share price (which fell from end of 2017) has room to move higher and has high potential to rise as it taps into AGOs high grade ore and lithium diversication potential. A double upside bonus for AGOs holders.

Could MIN be the winner?
MIN counters with better offer. Let's say 5c-6c scrip.
FMG doesn't counter bid.
Gina doesn't counter bid.
MINs terms similar but much better price for AGO holders.
Gina leverages her 20% holdings into a JV with MIN / AGO
FMG leverages its 20% share holdings to JV to help tap into exploration of AGO diversication possibilities and Ridley high grade.
Blending heaven for the Pilbura?

Further upside holding MIN as AGOs potential is realised.

Could Gina be the winner?
Not on current bid but via a higher scrip offer following MINs FMGs offers.

Could we all be winners?
All in all AGO is an absolute opportunity maker and strategic asset no doubt. We all deserve to be winners as Aussies. This is what Australia investment is about. Mateship, sharing costs, effort and profits. Miners win. Investors win. Government wins. We all profit.

Remember the history of AGO. JV galore. Sharing infrastructure, costs, profits and resources mitigates financial risk and utilises it's potential to the max while keeping costs at lows. Regardless of the outcome I would expect JVs to be a common theme.

Win win for all parties is my take on this even if FMG / Gina / MIN win the bid. Having a stake in AGO gives you leverage and upside potential. Selling early gives someone else an opportunity to realise your investment as the commodity profit boom gathers momentum over the next few years.

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In opinion:
Even though my examples of offers were in 5-6c, I do agree 100% with @Bones322 with his analysis and I hope future offers come closer to those figures . AGOs potential and value is there but at what final price? Good luck holders. There's still time for this to play out. Interesting times ahead.

Last edited by asx_dude: 18/06/18

AGO Price at posting: 4.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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