When the bottom hole pressure drops there is less pressure driving the frack fluid into the velocity string so the flow is lower. If you then have a high ratio of nitrogen to frack fluid at the point they meet it creates a bottleneck, so back off the n2 to allow more fluid in.
I am uncomfortable with this update, it indicates a declining bottom hole pressure as planned, which should be delivering the higher differential pressure to the fracture faces. It is not resulting in an increased flow from the fracture faces as yet(pressure support). At a flow rate of 166 there was plenty of margin for decline without concern, the margin IMO is gone at 50.
It is not done yet, but the market has already priced a degree of failure in I believe, so not much long term downside with conventional and Yukon to come.
If this does fail it will be a fail of this stimulation plan, not the HRZ potential as that was written in the IW1 results. None the less it will probably be industry that would carry it forward to success via a farmout if results don't come to expectation.
Edit buy to hold
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