All in opinion:
History repeats itself folks so get ready for the next minimum 5-8 magnificent investor years as it's been over a decade in the making since the ducks have aligned in favour of commodities the way they have now. History cannot be denied. In general the commodity supply and demand fundamentals are balanced, except Lithium where demand over the next few years outway supply. It will take enormous capital to maintain commodity supply levels as demand further ramps up with continued high growth in India, China, SEA and maybe North Korea to provide high demand potential as OBOR expands and while the entire western world modernises into the next century with Infrastructure a focus.
End of year stock selloff is exhausted and it seems there's no downside left in the tank.
LT decade long technicals pointing in the direction of a commodity recovery of epic proportions.
As more and more global commodity ETF funds slowly spring up, Aussie investors have already positioned for this historical event.
AGO investors in the box seat for recovery as its prized strategic Pilbura assets are tapped into. Lots of money to be made. Why else would MIN, Hancock and FMG jump on the opportunity of AGO. Quite obvious really....
As US rates rise and global inflation rises we should see two basic economic events occur which will flow into Australia:
1. Cost of borrowing goes up, assets propped up on cheap debt will fall
The days of cheap debt fueling assets bubbles are over for now. It will take 4-8 years for this cycle to run is course as investors, individuals and business who borrowed to the hilt learn what it means for the cost of borrowing to increase while those assets fall in value. A double whammy for many no doubt who got used to 'easy money' assuming rates stay low forever. Expect asset consolidations in the process. Tech unicorns might come back to earth reminiscent of the last dot com crash. It's all about meeting expectations...... Coiny coins seems to be falling with no bottom in sight. Aussie bloated property values across the board will deflate back to reality as the market takes a long breather which is required to normalise values for future generations. Typical historical property cycles run around 8 years. The good times are over. Sydney and Melbourne lead the way with falls, other states will follow over the next few years.
2. Commodities rise as the cost of living goes up
Commodities will rise across the board as inflation ticks up. Profits will increase for Aussie miners as US dollar increases. Costs are near absolute lows. The tide is turning and it points to mining profits over the next few years. Good for Aussie miners, great for resource investors, good for mining industry and good for government. Those who accumulate now will reap rewards.
Good luck AGO holders. Plenty of time for this to play out.
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