Over this cold wet winter weekend I have decided to take another look at the old ASX released April 2012 Scoping Study and see if I can extrapolate anything from it that may be relevant for us today.
In 2012, KRC based their scoping of the Speewah Vanadium project around a 6.3 million tonne per annum mining rate and it looks like the mass recovery for concentrate was less than 10%.
Based on that study, in 2012 Speewah predicted 550,000 tonnes of concentrate enabled them a production of 12,400 tonnes of Vanadium, 75,000 tonnes of Titanium and 410,000 tonnes of iron
In 2018 they are looking at a bigger, better looking project with completely new science and variables. One key point worth taking into consideration is that mining is nearly double that 6.3 mtpa 2012 mining rate.
So for simplicity sake, let’s assume it is going to be ~10 mtpa to make my calculations easy.
The mass recovery from their new concentrate specifications is now around 15% I think, so let’s assume new concentrate volumes used in the 2018 scoping may be around 1.5 million tonnes per annum.
So, it must then be reasonable to expect that the production volumes in the new scoping study should be modelled to be much more than double?
I certainly think so .... and for this exercise will assume up 130%
At current market prices, I think high purity Vanadium currently sells for US$28,500 per tonne, Titanium US$3200 per tonne and high purity iron up to US$160 per tonne
12,400 tonnes Vanadium x 130% increase in volumes = 28,000 tonnes
75,000 tonnes of Titanium x 130% = 173,000 tonnes
410,000 tonnes of iron x 130% = 943,000 tonnes
Vanadium product value then US$799 million
(28,000 x $28,500)
Titanium product value US$553 million
Iron product value US$151 million
Total annual sales value is then ~US$1.5 billion to then be converted to A$ at .75
Therefore, over $2 billion potential annual sales value at these current commodity price assumptions
Hard to imagine there won’t be some decent profit in all of that somewhere?
Please do your own numbers and tell me if or where I may have made any error.
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