Ann: Further Testwork to Enhance Opuwo Scoping Study, page-506

Whilst our oracle is on holiday, I thought I'd re-share one of his earlier posts:

I have been in contact with my friends from the Co trading and the latest info is :

-Co will drift to $40 because traders have a lot of in pricing over the next months (fewer sales during the summer holiday) and push the publications down to save a few dollars on incoming units under LT deals (this is what one of my friend does). They make small tonnage sales below price and send copy of contract to publications (easy!)

-They are still convinced it will break the $50 level before year end ( this is very positive, you remember I told you earlier this year i thought this would take much longer)

-Next step is the all time high of $58/lb which will be a strong resistance, but there is much more momentum than the last two times it reached that level. Cobalt should be above $60 during H1 19

The big deal is of course the situation of Glencore which is supposed to produce more than 1/3 of the WW cobalt output next year.

I discussed with a friend who is often in Rwanda and RDC because he runs the W and Ta books of a large trader which owns local mines. He told me that the Congolese should not be underestimated. They already managed to isolate Glencore from other mining companies operating in DRC (they will soon come to terms with them on the royalties).

There are two legal actions ongoing in Kolwezi, one by the state company Gecamines which owns a minority stake in Katanga and wants to take full control and one by Gertler to whom they owe $ 3,000,000,000 in royalties…that they can not pay because he has been blacklist by the US authorities. Gertler already managed to freeze some of their assets and this is of course money which was mainly due to Kabila and he can not survive without this cash.
Hence, they want to kick Glencore out and retake control of assets which means there will be no ramp up at katanga (Gecamines has no cash) and Cobalt production could be 15% lower than predicted if that happens. ..............Glencore is not in a good position, they will run into serious problems.

This probable major problem is NOT reflected in actual Co prices."

look-Hes using the lbs price for co. The 60$ an lb his cobalt team are calling in 1q 2019 is equivelent to 130,000 USD per ton - which means about USD 160,000 a ton for Co sulphide.They reckon its going even higher later. Hes in the business. Hes been over 30 years in that end of the trading market. If anyone knows its him.

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33109192/single