If I assume 5000 watches are sold online for a margin of $120 per watch and assume only 4,000 are sold in stores like JB at $100 margin, that provides a gross profit of just over $1mill. The company says it has locked in revenue from school software license fees of $1.34mill and is expecting $610k from school SMS. I estimate a further $350k in margin from the app on an average 9250 watches using the app over the year.
Net income before overheads would be around $3.2mill. I’m estimating overheads at $1.5mill. That leaves a NPAT of just over $1mill on what I think are conservative numbers of just 9000 watches sold this financial year. Growth should remain quite strong for a number of years with further deals looking likely in Australia and perhaps more overseas and Gartner estimating very strong growth for the sector. A forward PE of 30 for this years estimated earnings should be appropriate if growth is expected to be strong. That gives me a price target of $3.11. Any further deals and I would be increasing my targets for sales, profit and share price.
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