hi finch, i am afraid i can't get it from the net. but it was the saturday (weekend edition).
the main problem with RJT is the comments on Friday imply that the probabilities are that RJT can not refinance its short term debt and this is where the NTA gets a bit damaged by either 1) rushed asset sales 2) dilutive equity raising 3) seriously high refinancing costs
this suprised me, i know credit markets are terrible but i thought RJT being a pretty simple clean cut property trust, albeit highly geared, would not have a problem re-financing 120 mill. it is not like centro where billions make it difficult.
i read a bit more on commercial property trusts on the weekend too. i think a lot of these NTAs are based on book vals from 12 months ago. Europe and the US markets look a lot sicker. for rubicon to say they can sell all these assets at their book value is bullsht i think. and when you are geared at say65%, a 20% fall can wipe of 60% of your NTA. Japan vals should have marginally increased from reval dates, but selling this year will be hard because of contagion from other markets.
it seems as though all 3 could be forced sellers of many properties. Japan has the short term debt issues, and the other 2 can be given 12 months notice on the loans. The loans would be impossible to sell.
conclusion with rjt? well they fire sale 200m aud of properties at a 30% discount. NTA goes from 85 to 70. then you have a very clean cut property trust with no issues for a couple of years. but maybe down the track they might have to sell more and NTA could fall another 15c worst case to 55 cents?
Gearing is now 45-50%? if property is on the nose maybe this is still too high? further sales bring nta down to 35cents? now this is about as bad as i can imagine.
I just think given all 3 are stressed sellers, the properties could take 15-20% haircuts in japan, 25%-30% Europe/US. do your numbers on this rather than the rubbish NTA's.
rjt is a speculative buy at current levels. i have sold some this morning to write off tax gains, at the same time profit taking on some agriculture stocks where sentiment is now looking very hyped up there. i treat this as a lesson to never average down ( i broke my rule once in rjt :( ). also when a stock looks too good to be true it often is. be wary of small cap stocks and disclosure from directors. and diversify your portfolio!
i still stress i still own plenty RJT, still hopeful they can get out of this mess. still rate them a spec buy.
but my rjt exposure is getting low now in $$ terms from the tax selling i did and the fall in market price! but i hope they recover for everyones sake.
but given my reduced exposure in dollars in RJT and the market in general i may not post as often.
i am sure you will all agree i have wasted enough of my time doing that of late!
good luck to all!
RJT Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
