I agree, $1.60 in Australia and $US6 are both key levels. I note $US5.98 is the 61.8% retracement of the move of the Feb-March rise, but also has been a key resistance level both in early 2017 and early 2018.
The shorts are starting to peak out and as I mentioned on the weekend they are even showing signs of reversing. A return to the November short position can't be done without pushing the price up significantly (see my note from Fri night/Sat morning).
The price has moved above the 100 day and 200 day moving averages and in the past that is when we have seen some powerful moves up, and as you say it has formed a solid base in the $A1.40-1.50 zone - the size of the move up can often be related to the length of the base.
So all the technicals looking positive, including very good work done by others on this site.
Fundamentals also look very good, with the 2 major risks (funding and trial results) both having great announcements recently.
Finally, I love the percentages of funds under management of the big funds who have been adding to positions. 0% to 0.1% for a few of them! That means their position in MSB hardly moves the needle. They won't be feeling anything like the pressure that the shorts are now starting to feel. With no real prospects of a capital raising to cover the shorts in the next 12 months, some of them will be hoping that they can cover quickly without pushing the price too much, that will put more pressure on those who are more stubborn and the pressure will continue to build.
The price closed on Friday night at $A1.609. A break above $1.60 in Aussie time will be a nightmare for the shorts and they'll probably have a last try at keeping it below that price. They may be able to hold it down for a short period, but other shorts are being prudent and are already covering - they are generally pretty hard-headed and will move their capital to where they have better odds of a return. This one has become too risky to short with major announcements due later this quarter, solid technicals and low trading volumes
See my earlier calculations on the shorting pressure
MSB Price at posting:
$1.56 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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