I thought I'd make an early start on it, given its going to be the main topic of conversation for the rest of July.
So lets start by putting in some useful tables for investors to view ahead of the quarterly release.
I'm going to post 3 tables, the first show's the growth in installs, the others deal with the revenue side of things.
An updated table ............. the predicted April estimate was out by less than 40,000 phones the June quarterly estimate number was out by @ 65,000 phones.
Please note all of the numbers in bold are either from the November presentation or from ASX announcements since then & are official Syntonic numbers.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 1 Date Quarter Gain Q to Q % Month Gain M to M % 2 Aug n/a n/a n/a 7.45M n/a n/a 3 Sept 20.10M n/a n/a 20.10M 12.65M 170% 4 Oct n/a n/a n/a 21.63M 1.53M 7.6% 5 Nov n/a n/a n/a 23.40M 1.77M 8.18% 6 Dec 25.365M 5.265M 26.19% 25.35M 1.965M 8.4% 7 Jan n/a n/a n/a 27.36M 2.05M 7.9% 8 Feb n/a n/a n/a 29.505M 2.135M 7.8% 9 Mar 18 31.777M 6.41M 25.28% 31.777M 2.272M 7.7% 10 Apr n/a n/a n/a 34.16M 2.383M 7.5% 11 May EST n/a n/a n/a 36.83M 2.67M 7.70% 12 Jun 18 39.785M 8.01M 25.20% 39.72M 2.8M 7.61% 13 Sept 18 49.65M 9.93M 25.00% n/a n/a n/a 14 Dec 18 62.06M 12.41M 25.00% n/a n/a n/a
------------------------------------------------
Please note the Services Revenue figures & Sales Revenue figures both come from Syntonic's half yearly reports. The cost of those sales were A$72,353 in July - Dec 2016 period & A$388,168 July - Dec 2017.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 1 Cash
Received%
GrowthQuarter
EndRevenue
Generated%
GrowthServices
RevenueSales
RevenueOutstanding
AmountCash
Balance2 A$140,000 ~ Sept
2016n/a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 A$18,000 ~ Dec
2016n/a ~ A$ 26,723 A$106,020 ~ ~ 4 A$0 ~ Mar
2017A$281,087 ~ ~ ~ A$281,087 ~ 5 A$593,197 ~ Jun
2017A$432,309 53.80% ~ ~ A$120,199 ~ 6 A$313,428 -47.16% Sept
2017A$480,382 11.12% ~ ~ A$287,153 A$3.743M 7 A$449,446 43.40% Dec
2017A$318,541 - 33.69% A$228,530 A$570,393 A$156,248 A$7.247M 8 A$314,500 -30.02% Mar
2018A$531,778 66.94% ~ ~ A$373,526 A$5.85M
There is no such breakdown of Sales/Services Revenue in the Annual report to 30th June 2017. It just lists revenue of A$846,139, which means that (A$846,139 - A$432,309 - A$281,087 = A$132,743) needs to be split between the 2 n/a's, with presumably a lot of that in the Sept quarter. The cost of sales for the year are A$395,315 so that means A$322,962 of them were in the second half of the year.
The quarterly reports for the Sept 16 & December 16 periods give the impression those 2 amounts (A$140,000 & A$18,000) were cash received, I believe this to be wrong & were in fact just in the revenue generated category. I've spent hours trying to get to the bottom of it all, without any joy thus far.
I would also refer people to the March 2017 quarterly report published 26th April 2017 https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170426/pdf/43hqzpbzgfz7bm.pdf particularly the bit about the A$281,087 in the first paragraph, "with majority of cash to be received in the current quarter" in other words some of it is on terms longer than 90 Days.
Also the bank balance if they hadn't done the cash raise would have been A$1.285M
As I stated a long time ago the cash received figure for the quarter was well below the previous quarters figure.
Next quarter's cash received figure has a good head start with A$373,000 to come from what we already know about, it could easily end-up over double the March quarter's figure.
The revenue figure was much higher than I was expecting it to be for the quarter, so quite a number of those phone installs started earning us money.
So we just need to look at the relationship between revenue and install's, that's the key to determining what the next quarter is going to look like.
On the back of the above I've changed my sentiment from none to Buy in April.
-------------------------------------------
Finally got somewhere when trying to work out revenue
It's like following a path, ie if this is true then this also has to be true, what I can't do (for now at least) is break it down into the right amounts for each month & for the individual 30 & 60 day elements. So I've averaged them out, to make it easier to understand.
There is a pattern emerging one that I think you'll like, because it shows some overall momentum.
So both the December 2017 numbers show a fall from the previous quarter, which is not surprising given that's the period where Data Rewards were being cut back etc.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 1 CashReceived RevenueGenerated QuarterEnding Facts 2 ~ A$281,087 Mar 2017 Jan 30 / Jan 60 / Feb 30 / Feb 60 = A$0
Mar 30 / Mar 60 = A$281,087
So you could say A$140K each3 A$593,197 A$432,309 Jun 2017 Apr 30 / Apr 60 / May 30 over A$312,110 to get to cash received number.
May 60 / Jun 30 / Jun 60 under A$120,199 to get to the revenue generated number
So you could say A$104K+ & A$40K-4 A$313,428 A$480,382 Sep 2017 Jul 30 / Jul 60 / Aug 30 over A$193,428 to get to cash received number.
Aug 60 / Sep 30 / Sep 60 under A$285,382 to get to the revenue generated number
So you could say A$65K+ & A$95K-5 A$449,446 A$318,541 Dec 2017 Oct 30 / Oct 60 / Nov 30 over A$165,000 to get to cash received number.
Nov 60 / Dec 30 / Dec 60 under A$153,000 to get to the revenue generated number
So you could say A$55K+ & A$51K-6 A$314,500 A$531,778 Mar 2018 Jan 30 / Jan 60 over A$161,000 to get to cash received number.
Feb 30 / Feb 60 / Mar 30 / Mar 60 under A$370,000 to get to the rev gen number
So you could say A$81K+ & A$92K-
The March 2018 numbers show good growth from the December ones on both measurements.
LOTM
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