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Z1P - Technical Analysis posts, page-30

  1. 656 Posts.
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    I'm pretty sure that's pretty openly available like the Shaw one?

    Both reports show the business needs to pretty much double its exposure to break even... and to do that, it needs to raise a lot of equity to support the book growth ( plus a fair whack of mezz).

    The Shaw report shows the requisite equity delta between now and 2020 to be circa $80m to support the supposed $700m book required to break even.

    There is no hocus pocus here, but just simply reading the figures, $700m in exposure is getting up there, and to think there would be slim to no profitability at that stage, when most models would be pumping out atleast 4-5% of book in net profit ( ie $30m plus), one would apply a pretty low multiple to a consumer book that makes sub like 1% return on book... Look at Flexi, they make circa 5% of book or $100m profit on a $2bn book and they are trading at 8-9 PE... Where do you folks see this business trading in 3 years, when Growth has slowed down and the books $700m or more, natural attrition is 10% P.A, growth is maybe 20% ( so net 10%) and profit is barely $5m...?

    You can't hide behind the "Digital Wallet, new aged Fintech Payment" guise forever... (Im sure APT can keep it going longer as its growing at an absurd rate potentially to the detriment of extreme credit quality) particularly at scale, when growth slows.... You guys can do the maths.

    @Warnie @Christos12 Am I missing something here?
 
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