Tariffs?..., page-28

Toly this is a reply to your post that started this. Today’s economies are interconnected world wide. Much more than in the Late 1930s. Though a trade war may boost REE prices for a very short period long term trade battles are highly disruptive to world trade and even trade within a country.

For example AL understands that her REE is mined in AU. Processes in Malaysia, Made into Magnets and or magnet assemblies for motors in Japan, Maybe sent to Mexico to be used in a motor for a window assembly in a door. The door is then shipped to US so it can say “assembled in USA” on car. Car may be sold in US Mexico or Canada. REE Prices may rise for a short period. Volume will quickly decrease as this system is thrown into chaos and sales of end products decline, Prices for REE will quickly drop. Revenue, price X volume, even worse. You have said many times how smart AL is, I agree, Figure with her contacts and exposure to the international market place she may understand a lot more than most of us.
Remember Many PMM motors are used in discretionary purchases. These purchases are the first to be delayed in even a small economic slow down. For Example Cars in general and E vehicle, Hand tools not used by trade people, $500 vacuum cleaners. It is amazing how many larger tools, lawn mowers, chain saws, Trimers, blowers now use PMMs, Some still with a cord but most with a battery. My washer & dryer both use PMMs for advanced features. My new 2018 Furnace and AC units have many more features because of PMMs. Now you may say that the items in the last sentence may not be hit, housing will slow down and if you are nervous about you employment upgrades to furnaces and washer & dyers will be put off.
Remember there is far more PMs in total of all standard ice vehicles sold, than in total EVs sold. Each EV may have more than an ICE, collectively the ICEs with PMM being used in steering, starter motor, brakes, Fans, AC, windows, seats and solenoids for control, do allot more for total NdPr sales than the few EVs sold now. This will change but not yet.

Year to year US June car sales were up 7%, manly trucks. For year kind of Flat. July – September will show us if there will be impact on sales in the near future. Cars will be one of the early flags of a slow down. Even 0% sales change of year over year may signal a turn.