de ja vu, page-46

Hardball

Yes but 1290 wasn't a real break in Jan as the line was lower.

If you had drawn the line from 1982 low to 2002 low then 2003 broke it by a point or two.

If you then adjusted it for 2003 then Jan 2008 probably broke it by a point or two.

So you would have to allow a point or two below 1290 now.

It is just one trendline and nothing to hang your hat on alone.

I think with the indicators it says we are close to a "normal" correction low.

It may be more severe but the difficulty I have with that is that is so soon after 2000/3 which was as major a bear as we have seen in terms of time if not price.

2003 ranks with just 1974 and 1932 as the worst bear markets in a hundred years.

Can a worse one happen so soon. Maybe.