Today's chart & trading, page-406

The adequacy of the bond was drawn into question during the IAEA review, who mentioned its weak anecdotal basis and the lack of a plan for analysis.

I expect the bond to come under scrutiny during the review process. I expect Lynas will have to put forward detailed plan.

Dodgers here have objected, asking how can Lynas be expected to plan for something they can't know the extent of?

Then they will need multiple contingency plans. They will not be allowed to submit half-baked plans contingent on unapproved solutions like road base, gypsum board or fertilizer.

Fully expect bond to be increased significantly. $100M minimum, likely much more. The volume of WLP alone is daunting. Essentially the same as the volume shipped in from Mt Weld. At 70,000 tpa, the total will be 1,000,000 tons before Condisoil production could possibly commence. Condisoil production would have to be on the order of 20,000,000 tpa for many years. How much space do you think such a plant requires?

Already Lynas is fitting together waste storage areas like a game of Tetris. That's because a large proportion of the land remaining needs to be reserved for the Condisoil operation (or whatever solution).

Posters suggesting "a best estimate of 50%" for Lynas's current storage capacity are lost in space. Simply look at latest drone imagery. Don't forget to consider the need to increase truck traffic ~20X, minimum.

Bottom Line: Condisoil approval or concentrate to China, that's the choice, but without capex/opex, without clear timeline, dial up Hobson with one hand and keep a fork in the other.